We managed to win $1479 on $120 in wagers this past Sunday. The only losers were two $10 parlays that included Green Bay money line.
Many who wager on the NFL put far too much emphasis on betting the superior team and next to zero emphasis on situational opportunities.
Is Jacksonville better than Buffalo?
Is Denver better than Dallas?
Is Atlanta better than New Orleans?
The answer to all three questions is probably “no.” But it didn’t matter this past Sunday as Jacksonville, Denver, and Atlanta all won straight up, Denver and Jacksonville as double digit underdogs.
This sort of thing happens nearly every season and the commentators still act surprised.
Jacksonville has been quietly improving and showed it Sunday by holding MVP candidate Josh Allen and the Bills without a touchdown. I thought Jacksonville would find a way to lose but they managed to win it.
Dallas was coming off a straight up underdog win on the road @ Minnesota. This is a red flag as everyone should know by now that you should lay off or bet against home favorites coming off a straight up road underdog win. Denver was getting too many points with the usual overreaction to a big name (Von Miller) leaving and came out looking motivated.
Atlanta and New Orleans featured in one to the NFL’s most underrated rivalries. Over the years these two are nearly even with one another with Atlanta leading the series 54-51. Atlanta looked like garbage at home the previous week while the Saints looked amazing knocking off the reigning champions Tampa Bay. Just like 2019 Atlanta was the underdog, went into New Orleans, and won straight up.
It seems the NFL has a week or two like this every season with lots of underdogs winning, yet everyone acts surprised when it happens.
Survivor advice: don’t take home favorites coming off a road underdog win,and try to avoid division games. Too many upsets occur in division games where the inferior team defeats the superior team due in large part to familiarity.
We’ll be back in a few days with a review of CIRCA SPORTSBOOK on NFL Sunday. It looks incredible online. We will have a table to enjoy the action and will post plenty of photos.
